Quantitative Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Crop Loss in the Yangtze River Delta Region of China
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Xu, Wei 2 ; Ming, Xiaodong 5 ; Ma, Yunjia 1 ; Zhang, Xinhang 1 ; Shi, Peijun 1 ; Zhuo, Li 6 ; Lu, Bingqiang 7 ;
作者机构： 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
3.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Emergency Management, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
4.Beijing Normal Univ, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
5.Newcastle Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England
6.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
7.Guangxi Acad Agr Sci, Nanning 530007, Peoples R China
关键词： multi-hazard; copula; joint return period; vulnerability surface; crop loss risk; Yangtze River Delta region
期刊名称：SUSTAINABILITY （ 影响因子：3.251； 五年影响因子：3.473 ）
ISSN： 2071-1050
年卷期： 2019 年 11 卷 3 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Due to their complexity, hazard interactions are often neglected in current studies of multi-hazard risk assessment. As a result, the assessment results are qualitative or semi-quantitative and are difficult to use in regional risk management. In this paper, the crop loss risk due to heavy rain and strong wind in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China was quantitatively assessed, based on the joint return periods of these hazards and a vulnerability surface. The joint return period is obtained with a copula function based on the marginal distribution of each hazard. The vulnerability is fitted by considering the joint hazard intensity, the sown area of crops, elevation, and GDP per capita. The results show that counties with a high value of joint hazard probability are clustered in the southeast coastal area and that the value gradually decreases from south to north and from east to west. The multi-hazard risk has a similar pattern, with a large value in the southeast coastal area and a low value in the northwest. The proposed method can be used for quantitative assessment of multi-hazard risk, and the results can be used for regional disaster risk management and planning.
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